You can be a good bettor and still go broke. All it takes is betting too much on the wrong night. Bankroll management is the boring part that keeps you alive long enough for your edge to show up.
Step 1: Set a bankroll
Pick an amount you can afford to lose completely without it touching rent, bills or your mood. That's your bankroll, separate from your normal money. Don't refill it after a bad week.
Step 2: Bet in units
A unit is a fixed % of your bankroll, usually 1-3%. With $500, one unit is $5-15.
- Normal bet: 1 unit
- Strong spot: 2 units
- Never: 10 units because "this one's a lock"
Flat betting sounds slow. That's the point. Ten losses in a row (it happens) cost you 10-30%, not everything.
Step 3: Size by edge (the Kelly idea)
The Kelly Criterion sizes bets by how big your edge is. Simple version: the bigger the gap between your probability and the odds, the more you bet. No edge = no bet.
Example: an even-money bet (+100) that you think wins 55% of the time. Full Kelly says bet 10% of your bankroll. That's aggressive, so most serious bettors use half or quarter Kelly (5% or 2.5%).
AlphaPredict has a built-in bankroll calculator that does this math for you.
Step 4: Never chase
Lost three in a row and want to "win it back" with one big bet? That's how bankrolls die. Same unit size, every bet. Recalculate your units weekly, not after every result.
Step 5: Track everything
Write down every bet: odds, stake, your probability and the result. After 100 bets you'll know if you actually have an edge or just had a lucky month.
The bottom line
Good picks make you money. Good sizing keeps it. Set a bankroll, bet small units, size by edge, never chase, track everything, and only bet what you can afford to lose.