Kalshi is a prediction market where you trade on whether something will happen: rate cuts, inflation numbers, weather, elections, sports and a lot more. The big difference from most rivals: it's a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, and you trade with regular dollars. No crypto needed.
How a Kalshi contract works
Every market is a yes-or-no question. You buy Yes or No contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢.
- If you're right, each contract pays $1.
- If you're wrong, you get nothing.
- The price is roughly the market's probability. Yes at 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Example: you buy 50 Yes contracts at 30¢ ($15). If it happens, you get $50. If it doesn't, you lose the $15.
Know this before your first trade
- There are fees. Kalshi charges a small fee per trade that depends on the price. Usually small, but they add up if you trade a lot or chase tiny edges. Check the fee schedule.
- You can exit early. Sell before the market settles to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
- Settlement follows a specific source. Every market says exactly what counts and who decides. Read it.
- Ranges are their own game. Many economic markets are split into brackets ("CPI between 3.0% and 3.1%"). Picking the right bracket is harder than picking a side.
Kalshi vs a sportsbook
On a sportsbook you bet against the house, and the house sets the price with its cut built in. On Kalshi you trade against other people. Prices move with supply and demand, and you can buy and sell whenever you want. That means mispriced markets exist, and if you're sharper than the crowd, you can use that.
Where people get it wrong
- Trading on gut feeling instead of data.
- Forgetting fees on cheap contracts (a fee on a 5¢ contract eats a big chunk of your upside).
- Going all-in on one market.
- Forgetting that a 90¢ contract still loses about 1 time out of 10.
The bottom line
Kalshi is one of the cleanest ways to trade real-world events in the US. Treat every price as a probability, know your fees, read the settlement rules, and size your trades like someone who plans to still be here next month.